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Lisa Irwin Missing 10 month old girl allegedly adbucted from her crib.


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Old 02-13-2012, 09:15 AM
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Default Bradley Behavior Analysis

Wanted to start a new thread on this subject so it won't get buried!

I posted this in the Missing Children's forum here and thought I'd post it here so we can discuss the behavior analysis and why it is impossible to move past Bradley. I scored the first part, Seamus doesn't add the entire list on the net for obvious reasons.

http://seamusoriley.blogspot.com/201...ing-child.html

1. The parent cooperates with all honesty.
2. The parent takes and passes polygraph.
3. The parent keeps the flow of information going, to police and to media.
4. Parent addresses child (if age appropriate)
We look at such features as:
1. Drugs, alcohol, substance abuse
2. Dispute
3. Domestic Violence
4. Criminal History
5. History of suspected child abuse
6. Pornography/Deviance
7. Child pornography
8. Social Isolation
9. Legal entanglements
and so on.
Let's take a look at the Behavioral Analysis Check List where we give a score of +1 for behavior that signals innocence on the part of the family, -1 for behavior that looks suspicious for family, and 0 for neutral behavior. For the sake of writing, we will use "parent" to mean parent, parents, step parent, grandparent, or caretaker, and the child in the masculine.
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Old 02-13-2012, 09:26 AM
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My take on Bradley- What is yours?

1. The parent cooperates with all honesty. -1 as Bradley has changed her story multiple times.
2. The parent takes and passes polygraph.-1 as Bradley states she failed a polygraph.
3. The parent keeps the flow of information going, to police and to media. -1 Bradley has stopped cooperating with local media and only attends interviews that she can control via her attorney.
4. Parent addresses child (if age appropriate)Rarely addresses Lisa by name. -1

At this point, we are at a -4 and can't move past Bradley.
We look at such features as:
1. Drugs, alcohol, substance abuse -1 Bradley admitted she was tanked the night listing went missing.
2. DisputeA dispute that night is unknown- this questions whether Bradley fought with Irwin or someone else that night. We don't know, so +1
3. Domestic Violence +1 we don't know
4. Criminal History Bradley lost her driver's license and I'd assume it was due to DWI's, but as no public info is out there, she gets a +1.
5. History of suspected child abuse Unknown +1
6. Pornography/Deviance unknown +1
7. Child pornography +1
8. Social IsolationNo friends have spoken for her innocence, she had 3 kids and I'd give that a -1.
9. Legal entanglementsUnsure, benefit of the doubt +1

Now Bradley appears to be 7 points ahead. The rest of this list isn't online, it's pertinent to note that Bradley has not cried real tears, holds her hands in a defensive posture, etc.

Bradley is culpable in this crime, it's just going to take a while to charge her.
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Old 02-13-2012, 09:42 AM
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http://lobbyistsofficesofgrw.wordpre...eeps-jeremy-i/

Can't vouch for this analysis, I don't know the author. It appears legit or I'd not post it.

When someone speaks from experiential memory, it is easy to stay in chronological order. When a crisis hits, a mother’s protective capacities go on high alert, and focus becomes sharp.
When Cindy Anthony said, “there’s no book on how someone will react” she was wrong. Deceptive people claim that “no one” knows how one will react when a child goes missing, but this is not true: we do know how guilty people act, and how innocent people act.

Statement Analysis deals with the unexpected. This means that when we view a statement, we go into the statement presupposing innocence: we start off, word by word, thinking the statement is truthful only halting when something unexpected arises, which catches our attention.

If the analyst is a deceptive person, or in the case of a child, an abusive parent, the expectation is skewered.

Jeremy appears to me to be deceptive.

Question: You concluded deception regarding Deborah; why not Jeremy? Is he deceptive?

Answer: Jeremy says little on his own, and when he does, there are two issues to deal with:

1. I have concerns, or “red flags” that I use as he rarely speaks for himself, and speaks mostly in the plural, “we” which is concerning but:
2. How much of the language is his own, and how much of it is Deborah’s? This is where analysis gets tough.
Deborah Bradley is clearly the dominant. The more he speaks, the clearer the analysis can become. Thus far:

1. His language is concerning in terms of deception;
2. He is withholding information
3. He has given a linguistic indication that he knows that Lisa is dead.
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Old 02-13-2012, 10:25 AM
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It finally snowed in KC!! So, I'm in for the day. Please discuss this case with me! Other than taking naps, I have no plans. For extra excitement, I may cash a check and go to Aldi's, bananas are on sale. My life is so very entertaining!!
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Old 02-13-2012, 11:22 AM
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Hi River!!!

I haven't followed this case in the last few months as it seemed to have turned into a cold case.

I love bananas though!! Great to 'see' you!!
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Old 02-13-2012, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ~tj~ View Post
Hi River!!!

I haven't followed this case in the last few months as it seemed to have turned into a cold case.

I love bananas though!! Great to 'see' you!!
This isn't a cold case. The forensics can't possibly be back and while it's been 4 long months for us, it's been 4 short months for LE.

Can't wait to watch Bradley in court, dressed in orange and shackled, making her first appearance after being placed into custody. It will happen.
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Old 02-13-2012, 12:39 PM
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WOW, just finished reading this thread. That is some powerful analysis, I agree with it. I think they both know what happened. Jeremy just seems to let DB take the lead and control. There is still something about him that I don't like, can't put my finger on it, just don't trust him, he seems sneaky to me.

What was all of this new leads bull they were spouting about on Dr. Phil? Wish I knew what happened in Jeremeys custody dispute. Oh well. Glad LE is still working on it.

Does LE use these types on analyisis tools?

Enjoy your snow day River! Don't get those down here LOL
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Old 02-13-2012, 01:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cat99 View Post
WOW, just finished reading this thread. That is some powerful analysis, I agree with it. I think they both know what happened. Jeremy just seems to let DB take the lead and control. There is still something about him that I don't like, can't put my finger on it, just don't trust him, he seems sneaky to me.

What was all of this new leads bull they were spouting about on Dr. Phil? Wish I knew what happened in Jeremeys custody dispute. Oh well. Glad LE is still working on it.

Does LE use these types on analyisis tools?

Enjoy your snow day River! Don't get those down here LOL
There are no new leads, Stanton is full of nonsense as usual.

What really "gets" me about this case is that Bradley isn't even charged yet. Her attorney's make her look even more guilty by lying to the media.
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Old 02-13-2012, 08:16 PM
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I tried to view the seamus link, but it was taken down.
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Old 02-13-2012, 09:29 PM
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Haven't seen this posted.

http://seamusoriley.blogspot.com/



Monday, February 13, 2012

Ayla Reynolds: DiPietro Took Out Life Insurance on Baby


updating....As we seek confirmation, Trista Reynolds' website is reporting the disturbing news that Justin DiPietro took out a life insurance policy on his child's life, while unemployed.

If so, this not only speaks to premeditation and against accidental death/cover up, but also triggers investigation done by insurance investigators; some of whom have high levels of training and are adept at getting to the truth.

The age old motive of greed...

After learning he failed a polygraph and stormed out of the police station when they showed him the luminal enhanced photographic evidence of Ayla's spilled blood, DiPietro has avoided making any public statements.

DiPietro was reported to have filed for a cessation of child support payments.

Taking out a life insurance policy on a child will bring new questions to the investigation and likely cause investigators to further grasp what was revealed in Justin DiPietro's statement:

he did not act alone.

Filing for cessation of child support, and then taking a life insurance policy out against a child, while unemployed, will buttress the circumstantial evidence case against him and Courtney Roberts, and may include Elisha DiPietro.

How much did Phoebe DiPietro know about this when she lied on camera?

Please recall that in order to be deceptive, one must seek to deceive, either through the withholding of information, or the falsification of information: it is an act of the will and reveals motive.

Why did Phoebe DiPietro need to lie about her son?

When she distanced herself, linguistically, it was done deliberately, such as "someone watching your house" and waiting for a call on your grandchild"; something that is unexpected due to the personal nature of break in and kidnapping.

Did Phoebe DiPietro know about an insurance policy taken out against Ayla's life when she spoke to media?

This would indicate that she knew there was no break in, no kidnapping, and no caseing of her home.
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Old 02-13-2012, 11:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TxsChef View Post
Haven't seen this posted.

http://seamusoriley.blogspot.com/



Monday, February 13, 2012

Ayla Reynolds: DiPietro Took Out Life Insurance on Baby


updating....As we seek confirmation, Trista Reynolds' website is reporting the disturbing news that Justin DiPietro took out a life insurance policy on his child's life, while unemployed.

If so, this not only speaks to premeditation and against accidental death/cover up, but also triggers investigation done by insurance investigators; some of whom have high levels of training and are adept at getting to the truth.

The age old motive of greed...

After learning he failed a polygraph and stormed out of the police station when they showed him the luminal enhanced photographic evidence of Ayla's spilled blood, DiPietro has avoided making any public statements.

DiPietro was reported to have filed for a cessation of child support payments.

Taking out a life insurance policy on a child will bring new questions to the investigation and likely cause investigators to further grasp what was revealed in Justin DiPietro's statement:

he did not act alone.

Filing for cessation of child support, and then taking a life insurance policy out against a child, while unemployed, will buttress the circumstantial evidence case against him and Courtney Roberts, and may include Elisha DiPietro.

How much did Phoebe DiPietro know about this when she lied on camera?

Please recall that in order to be deceptive, one must seek to deceive, either through the withholding of information, or the falsification of information: it is an act of the will and reveals motive.

Why did Phoebe DiPietro need to lie about her son?

When she distanced herself, linguistically, it was done deliberately, such as "someone watching your house" and waiting for a call on your grandchild"; something that is unexpected due to the personal nature of break in and kidnapping.

Did Phoebe DiPietro know about an insurance policy taken out against Ayla's life when she spoke to media?

This would indicate that she knew there was no break in, no kidnapping, and no caseing of her home.
I know this is not funny, but, here I am reading about Bradley and read this post. Trying to figure out how a DiPietro could take out life insurance on Lisa. Was getting ready to ask who this was and what connection he had to Lisa when the light bulb finally turned on. Sometimes I am so dense I scare myself.
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Old 02-14-2012, 06:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SamiJo View Post
I tried to view the seamus link, but it was taken down.
When I get home from work, I'll fix it. It's a very good read!
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Old 02-14-2012, 08:57 PM
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http://www.kmbc.com/r/30457917/detail.html


KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Kansas City police said the body of an 11-month-old girl recently found in Virginia is not that of missing Kansas City baby Lisa Irwin.

So sad, another baby thrown away.

Does anyone know of any other 11 month old baby girls missing from Virginia, or anywhere else?
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Old 02-14-2012, 09:10 PM
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First time I've heard about this but that doesn't mean much:

Quote:
and stormed out of the police station when they showed him the luminal enhanced photographic evidence of Ayla's spilled blood
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Old 02-17-2012, 02:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverSelah View Post
This isn't a cold case. The forensics can't possibly be back and while it's been 4 long months for us, it's been 4 short months for LE.

Can't wait to watch Bradley in court, dressed in orange and shackled, making her first appearance after being placed into custody. It will happen.



BBM : I am glad to hear that this is NOT a cold case ! Oh, how I wish they would find Lisa !

And it can't happen soon enough to see Deb in court -- what a ! She makes me

Have a nice day !

Hope

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Old 02-18-2012, 11:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grams View Post
http://www.kmbc.com/r/30457917/detail.html


KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Kansas City police said the body of an 11-month-old girl recently found in Virginia is not that of missing Kansas City baby Lisa Irwin.

So sad, another baby thrown away.

Does anyone know of any other 11 month old baby girls missing from Virginia, or anywhere else?
Look how long it took to ge the DNA results back on that baby. These labs are so backlogged.
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Old 02-20-2012, 08:14 PM
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River, what are your thoughts on what could come back regarding the forensics? Although it might not be considered a 'cold case' the silence around missing baby Lisa is very sad!
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Old 02-21-2012, 04:05 AM
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River, what are your thoughts on what could come back regarding the forensics? Although it might not be considered a 'cold case' the silence around missing baby Lisa is very sad!
The decomp area where the dogs hit is probably going to be the biggest forensics hit, along with the stuffed toys taken into custody. The carpet didn't have to be removed for forensics to be taken, they could have just shaved a few fibers and had enough evidence to do a lot of forensic tests on.

It's almost been 5 long months for us and it's 'only' been 5 months for LE.
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Old 02-21-2012, 11:21 AM
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Take River's first and second post and apply it to Terri Horman (Kyron Horman case) and it is quite easy to see why LE consider her their top suspect.
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Old 02-29-2012, 06:04 PM
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The cadaver dog was scent trained. My guess is there was no decomp on the rug. This dog hit in the very first few days. The scent was strong at the time...probably disseminated rapidly. Later, dogs were brought into find decomp in that house and everything was gone over with a fine tooth comb.

There was no reason to take a rug or anything at that time (first few days). They knew immediately there was a deceased person recently in that house.
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